What if Reagan Did Not Win? Some Notes on McGee’s Puzzle and the Lottery Paradox
Issue: • Author/s: Lina Maria Lissia, Martina Calderisi
Topics: Epistemology, Philosophical logic, Philosophy of logic
McGee notably provided a putative counterexample to Modus Ponens. McGee’s puzzle is based on a scenario involving three candidates running for president in the 1980 United States elections. We will present a slightly modified version of McGee’s election scenario, in which the probability of one of the candidates (i.e., Ronald Reagan) winning is reduced to a conveniently low value. As we will see, two ways out of the puzzle, suggested by Fulda and Paoli respectively, do not survive this minor change in the scenario. In addition, we will point to…