Argumenta – Journal of Analytic Philosophy

One or Two Puzzles about Knowledge, Probability and Conditionals [Special Issue]

Topics: Epistemology, Metaphysics, Philosophical logic, Philosophy of science
Keywords: Adams thesis, Closure., conditionals, Knowledge, Probability


Rothschild and Spectre (2018b) present a puzzle about knowledge, probability and conditionals. This paper analyzes the puzzle and argues that it is essentially two puzzles in one: a puzzle about knowledge and probability and a puzzle about probability and conditionals. As these two puzzles share a crucial feature, this paper ends with a discussion of the prospects of solving them in a unified way.

The topic of this paper is a puzzle by Rothschild and Spectre (2018b). This puzzle involves premises about knowledge and probability on the one hand and premises about knowledge, conditionals and probability on the other. If in this puzzle one were to stick to the premises about conditionals, one could learn that a certain form of skepticism is true. Conversely, denying …


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