Argumenta – Journal of Analytic Philosophy

The subjective probability of a subjunctive conditional is argued to be equal to the expected conditional credence in its consequent, given the truth of its antecedent, of an ‘expert’: someone who reasons faultlessly and who, at each point in time, is as fully informed about the state of the world as it is possible to be at that time.

The Suppositional Theory says that one should believe a conditional to the degree that one believes its consequent to be true on the supposition that its antecedent is or were true, a claim known as the Ramsey Test hypothesis. The theory is widely reckoned to do a good job in explaining the patterns in our attitudes to conditionals and the linguistic behaviour that manifest them: our assertions and denials of different conditionals, the inferences we make with them, and so on. There has been much controversy around …


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