Argumenta – Journal of Analytic Philosophy

This paper critically discusses Patrick Todd’s book, The Open Future: Why Future Contingents Are All False (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2021).

It is February 2022. Russia has not yet invaded Ukraine, but (let us assume) the invasion is not inevitable. You and I disagree on whether it will take place. You claim:

(1) Russia will invade Ukraine in days.

In support of (1), you cite respectable intelligence sources. I strongly reject your claim:

(2) Russia will not invade Ukraine anytime soon.

A few days later, Russia begins its full invasion of Ukraine. At this point, we can say in retrospect that…


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